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October Feeder Cattle opened lower, traded to the low at 350.80 and then rallied to the high at 354.90 by mid- morning. It pulled back into the middle of the range and then rallied into the close to settle near the high at 354.10. The open tested support at the flattening 8-DMA now at 351.75. The rally stalled above resistance at 354.55. Feeder Cattle made a low on September 12^th at 344.90. It made a high on September 16^th at 356.125. It is in a trading range with the Friday price action in the upper end of the trading range. The Feeder Index has pulled back since peaking at 367.03 on September 5^th. The index stands at 360.63. Futures are trading at a discount to the index indicating traders think the index will continue lower as we move towards October. The bullish excitement has waned since making the all-time high on my continuous chart on August 27^th at 369.375. The supply situation hasn’t changed, in my opinion. We have a closed border with Mexico that doesn’t seem to be opening anytime soon. The screwworm continues to plague Mexico as cases are said to be increasing even as it looks like it hasn’t advanced to the North. We are moving forward with building facilities in Mexico and Texas to combat the screwworm, but it will take time to get these facilities operational. I can’t see the USDA opening up Mexico until we see the screwworm threat moving Southward. In other words, getting the fly under control and not approaching the US. This will likely take some time and it will be problematic for the administration if the border is opened and the screwworm gets into the US. Heifer retention is on everyone’s’ minds.  Are we seeing more heifers being held back? When this starts in earnest, supply will tighten further, in my opinion. Producers are still aggressively buying cattle but have been pickier about their purchases according to producers I speak with. The good ones have been going at high prices. The marginal ones have come down whereas before they were paying up for these cattle also. This, in my opinion has helped the index come down. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at the flattening 8-DMA. Support then comes in at 350.20. If price can press forward above resistance at 354.55, it could test resistance at the flattening 21-DMA now at 357.35. Resistance then comes in at 358.875.

The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 360.63 as of 09/18/2025. 

December Live Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the October contract. It is trading at a higher level than the now spot contract. It opened higher and traded to the session low at 233.90. The low tested support at the declining 13-DMA now at 233.70. The market reversed course and rallied to the high at 236.35. The rally stalled around 9:30AM, just above resistance at 235.625. It consolidated most of the rest of the morning and then pulled back after a lower cutout price  put bearish traders in control for a bit. It recovered after lunch and price rallied into settlement, settling at 235.725. Settlement was above the critical 21-DMA now at 235.125 and the key level at 235.625. Price was able to move into the upper end of its trading range as traders were comfortable buying futures in front of the upcoming Cattle on Feed report. The report came out slightly bullish in my opinion as traders are watching the placements number and it came in below the estimated 91.5%. It came in at 90.1%. The cash market remains in a weakened state as producers have been unable to turn the cash price higher as the packer is in control for the time being. Producers tell me they are making money even at these lower levels and with the cutout breaking down, they haven’t fought for higher prices as the seasonal cutout decline has been able to put producers on their heels, unlike July when the cutout was under pressure, they were able to get cash prices to all-time highs, in my opinion. The packer continues to pressure slaughter numbers with slaughter this week standing at 552,000. This is well under some analysts expectation of 565,000. With the COF report looking bullish can we get a sustainable rally in futures and help the producer get their feet back under them to drive cash higher?  We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at the declining 13-DMA. Support then comes in at 232.75. If price can hold settlement, it could move towards resistance at 238.125.

Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts fell 3.76 to 382.05 and select decreased 1.39 to 359.92. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 22.13 and the load count was 131.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 87,000, which is below last week’s 99,000 and last year’s 110,499. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 5,000, which is below last week’s 7,000 and last year’s 9,331. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 552,000, which is below last week’s 565,000 and last year’s 614,409.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states:  So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 240.00. The last established market in Kansas was Thursday at 240.00. Negotiated cash has been limited on moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. There has been a few live purchases in Nebraska at 237.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market in Nebraska was Thursday with live purchases from 236.00-238.00 and dressed purchases at mostly 370.00. There has been a few live purchases in the Western Cornbelt at 236.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established live market test in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday from 236.00-237.00, mostly 237.00. The last established dressed market was last week from 375.00- 378.00, mostly 378.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 235.00 – 240.00 and from 367.00 – 376.00 on a dressed basis (so far).

United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent 

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2025. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2024. 

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.78 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.73 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 355,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 265,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 390,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 420,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 260,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 90,000 head. 

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.57 million head, 14 percent below 2024. Marketings were the lowest for August since the series began in 1996. 

Other disappearance totaled 51,000 head during August, 6 percent below 2024.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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