Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures were lower at the close after fractional midday gains. Futures settled with losses of 1 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents in the front months on Thursday. USDA weekly corn export sales were reported at 546,115 MT for the week ending 11/28. That was at the bottom of expectations and 53.62% below last year. Weekly shipments were at 494,779 MT, which was a 140,555 MT reduction from last week. Accumulated exports have increased to 6.344 MMT as of the weekly report. Census data for monthly corn exports showed that October corn shipments were 90.7 mbu, a 59.27% decrease from last October and up 13.59% from September. Ethanol monthly exports were at 112.822 million gallons, which was 65.89% of last October’s record. Due to the low ethanol production, DDG exports were at just 759,979 MT.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.65 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.82 1/2, down 2 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.87, down 2 1/4 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nearby soybean futures were unable to maintain midday gains, but still finished higher on the day. Soybean meal futures closed with a gain of $4.90/ton. Soy oil futures were also 2 points higher. USDA reported a private export sale of 245,000 MT of soybeans to unknown this morning, with 120,000 MT for 19/20 and 125,000 MT for 20/21. Monthly data from CENSUS revealed that soybean shipments through October were 218.43 mbu, which is 52.82% larger than Sept and 8.9% above shipments from a year ago. Soybean meal shipments through October were an all time high for the month, at 1.033 MMT. That is the highest monthly shipments since April of last MY. The Export Sales reported showed bookings below trade estimates, with net sales of 683,783 MT through the week ending 11/28. Sales were down 41.1% from last week and broke the 4-week streak of 1+ MMT weekly sales. Shipments through the week were at 1.498 MMT, which was 66.7% of last week’s 2-year high, but 19.6% above the same week last year. Meal sales for the same week were at 181,050 MT, with soy oil sales at 10,781 MT.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.84 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.98 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.13 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.26 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $299.50, up $4.90,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.29, up $0.02

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed the Thursday session with losses on the board. KC led the way down carrying 5 to 5 3/4 cent losses, while Chicago SRW was close behind, 2 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents in the red. MGE wheat was also lower, showing 3/4 to 2 1/2 cent drops on the day (disregarding Dec which expires a week from Friday). Census data showed that 2.143 MMT of wheat was exported during the month of October. The 78.74 mbu was a 6-year high for October wheat exports. Weekly export sales data from the USDA showed that 228,086 MT of wheat sales through the week ending 11/28. Those sales were 68% below the same week of last year. Accumulated MY exports for all wheat were listed at 12.38MMT, and is 22.86% above last year’s pace. Japan purchased 160,640 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 91,220 MT from the US. Algeria purchased ~500,000 MT of optional origin wheat in a tender on Thursday.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32, down 3 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.20 1/4, down 5 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.98, up 1 3/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures came back down from midday triple digit gains, but still finished in the black. Feeder cattle futures however turned southward after midday gains and ended with 27 to 32 cent losses in the front months. The 12/04 CME Feeder Cattle index was $144.53 after dropping by 66 cents. Weekly beef export sales from the USDA were shown at 12,181 MT across both years, which were 54.33% lower than the week prior, but only 4.43% less than the same week last year. Wholesale boxed beef prices were again lower. Choice boxes showed a $1.35 drop, and select boxes were $2.19 lower. Monthly Census data converted to pounds put October beef shipments at 248.6 million lbs. Cash sales of $119 were reported in KS and TX today. USDA estimated the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 477,000 head through this evening, compared to the same week last year which was at 482,000.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.925, up $0.475,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $124.600, up $0.425,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $125.225, up $0.225,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.550, down $0.325

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.150, down $0.275

APR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.125, down $0.275

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures finished Thursday with $0.30 to $1.25 drops. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/03 was $0.82 above yesterday @ $58.20. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another $0.36 to $81.36, with primals mostly higher save hams and butts. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/05 was 78 cents higher at $46.46. USDA’s latest update for weekly pork export sales showed that 29,196 MT for the week ending 11/28. Shipments through the same week were at 33,114 MT – a 21.8% reduction wk/wk, but 18.8% higher than the same week last year. The accumulated export shipments, according to the same USDA report, are at 1.448MMT which is 37% above last year. Using USDA conversions with Census data, pork shipments for the month of October were tallied at 520.9 million lbs, a record for the month. USDA’s weekly total estimate for FI hog slaughter through Wednesday was 1.486 million head, 21,000 head above last week’s pace.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $61.575, down $0.300,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $67.575, down $0.850

APR 20 Hogs closed at $73.500, down $1.250

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures closed the session with losses of 4 to 19 points, disregarding soon to expire (Friday) December. The Monthly export data from CENSUS stated cotton shipments for October were 731,611 480lb bales, which is 19.6% below September shipments, but is an 11-year high for the month due to being the 3rd largest October total on record. Weekly Export Sales data from the USDA listed 165,903 RB of cotton export sales on the week. Through the same week ending 11/28 shipments were 166,737 RB bringing the accumulated weekly shipments to 3.099 million RB, which is 15.38% above last year. The Seam reported 10,097 bales sold on Dec 4th, bringing the weekly total to 21,608 bales. The Cotlook A Index was 65 more points lower at 73.50 cents per pound on Dec 4th. The AWP was lowered down to 55.97 cents/bale this afternoon. That was a 23 point drop, while the previous move was a 16 point drop.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.71, up 154 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 64.51, down 19 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.48, down 13 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.46, down 4 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.