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Crop Production
Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released April 11, 2024, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.73 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 7 percent
from the 2022-2023 revised utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
18.8 million boxes (846,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous
forecast but up 19 percent from last season's revised utilization. In
Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
up 11 percent from last season's revised utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (540,000 tons), is down 8 percent from
the previous forecast but up 24 percent from last season's revised
utilization.
The California all orange forecast is 46.0 million boxes (1.84 million tons),
is unchanged from previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season's
revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is
38.0 million boxes (1.52 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast
but up 5 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California
Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons), unchanged from
the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's revised
utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.10 million boxes
(47,000 tons) up 16 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent
from last season's revised utilization.
This report was approved on April 11, 2024.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Gloria M. Greene
Agricultural Statistics Board
Acting Chairperson
Lance Honig
Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted
April 1, 2024............................................................................................ 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11
Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12
Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12
March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13
March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13
Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14
Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15
Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15
Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16
This page intentionally left blank.
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and
Forecasted April 1, 2024
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons -----
Oranges :
California, all ............: 44,700 46,000 1,788 1,840
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 36,100 38,000 1,444 1,520
Valencia ..................: 8,600 8,000 344 320
:
Florida, all ...............: 15,820 18,800 712 846
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 6,150 6,800 277 306
Valencia ..................: 9,670 12,000 435 540
:
Texas, all .................: 1,130 1,100 48 47
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 570 700 24 30
Valencia ..................: 560 400 24 17
:
United States, all .........: 61,650 65,900 2,548 2,733
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 42,820 45,500 1,745 1,856
Valencia ..................: 18,830 20,400 803 877
:
Grapefruit :
California .................: 4,300 4,100 172 164
Florida ....................: 1,810 2,000 77 85
Texas ......................: 2,250 2,600 90 104
:
United States ..............: 8,360 8,700 339 353
:
Tangerines and mandarins 3/ :
California .................: 23,550 22,000 942 880
Florida ....................: 480 500 23 24
:
United States ..............: 24,030 22,500 965 904
:
Lemons :
Arizona ....................: 1,400 1,050 56 42
California .................: 26,000 22,000 1,040 880
:
United States ..............: 27,400 23,050 1,096 922
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties
in Florida and Texas.
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 3,101 2,566 2,555
Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,641 90,036 86,513
Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,471
Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 52,821 51,562
Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,634
All other ............................: (NA) 37,187
Oats ...................................: 2,555 2,318 831
Proso millet ...........................: 619 572
Rice ...................................: 2,894 2,932 2,854
Rye ....................................: 2,293 322
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,195 6,395 6,115
Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 384
Wheat, all .............................: 49,575 47,498 37,272
Winter ...............................: 36,699 34,135 24,683
Durum ................................: 1,676 2,028 1,604
Other spring .........................: 11,200 11,335 10,985
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 2,344.5 2,366.5 2,319.2
Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed ...............................: 178 105 160
Mustard seed ...........................: 245.0 238.1
Peanuts ................................: 1,645.0 1,651.0 1,574.0
Rapeseed ...............................: 13.2 10.1
Safflower ..............................: 129.5 126.0
Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,600 86,510 82,356
Sunflower ..............................: 1,315.0 957.5 1,267.5
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all ............................: 10,230.0 10,673.0 7,064.6
Upland ...............................: 10,083.0 10,470.0 6,924.8
American Pima ........................: 147.0 203.0 139.8
Sugarbeets .............................: 1,137.4 1,129.0 1,127.3
Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 929.6
Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 187.6 165.3
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 372.4 429.0 359.2
Dry edible beans .......................: 1,180.0 1,316.0 1,156.9
Dry edible peas ........................: 966.0 974.0 941.0
Lentils ................................: 546.0 762.0 523.0
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: (NA) 54.3
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 31.3
Potatoes ...............................: 965.0 960.2
Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 12.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2023 and 2024 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per acre : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 ------
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 185,036
Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.3 15,341,595
Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 129,994
Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.25 118,769
Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.19 49,916
All other ........................tons: 1.85 68,853
Oats ............................bushels: 68.6 57,045
Proso millet ....................bushels: 34.2 19,572
Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,649 218,291
Rye .............................bushels: 32.2 10,375
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 52.0 317,745
Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.0 4,981
Wheat, all ......................bushels: 48.6 1,811,977
Winter ........................bushels: 50.6 1,247,748
Durum .........................bushels: 37.0 59,329
Other spring ..................bushels: 46.0 504,900
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ...........................pounds: 1,793 4,157,420
Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 3,788.0
Flaxseed ........................bushels: 18.5 2,961
Mustard seed .....................pounds: 627 149,305
Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,742 5,890,020
Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,003 20,230
Safflower ........................pounds: 1,036 130,570
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.6 4,164,677
Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,786 2,263,520
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 845 12,434.0
Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 12,127.0
American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,054 307.0
Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.2 35,226
Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.3 33,766
Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,305 432,452
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 4,722
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,067 23,910
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,922 18,086
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,098 5,742
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops .............................pounds: 1,915 104,042.5
Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,179
Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 666,647
Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 2,811
Potatoes ............................cwt: 459 440,750
Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 126 1,541
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 1,254,940 1,038,430 1,033,980
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 38,300,270 36,436,670 35,010,950
Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,618,750
Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 21,376,130 20,866,630
Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,326,920
All other ....................: (NA) 15,049,210
Oats ...........................: 1,033,980 938,070 336,300
Proso millet ...................: 250,500 231,480
Rice ...........................: 1,171,170 1,186,550 1,154,990
Rye ............................: 927,950 130,310
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,911,740 2,587,990 2,474,680
Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 155,400
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 20,062,510 19,221,970 15,083,610
Winter .......................: 14,851,720 13,814,090 9,988,960
Durum ........................: 678,260 820,710 649,120
Other spring .................: 4,532,530 4,587,160 4,445,520
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 948,800 957,700 938,560
Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 42,490 64,750
Mustard seed ...................: 99,150 96,360
Peanuts ........................: 665,720 668,140 636,980
Rapeseed .......................: 5,340 4,090
Safflower ......................: 52,410 50,990
Soybeans for beans .............: 33,832,080 35,009,730 33,328,650
Sunflower ......................: 532,170 387,490 512,940
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,139,980 4,319,260 2,858,970
Upland .......................: 4,080,490 4,237,100 2,802,400
American Pima ................: 59,490 82,150 56,580
Sugarbeets .....................: 460,290 456,900 456,210
Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 376,200
Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 75,930 66,900
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ......................: 150,710 173,610 145,360
Dry edible beans ...............: 477,530 532,570 468,190
Dry edible peas ................: 390,930 394,170 380,810
Lentils ........................: 220,960 308,370 211,650
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,980
Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 12,670
Potatoes .......................: 390,530 388,580
Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,940
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2023 and 2024 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 3.90 4,028,680
Corn for grain .........................: 11.13 389,694,460
Corn for silage ........................: 45.03 117,928,570
Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.04 107,745,420
Alfalfa ..............................: 7.16 45,283,030
All other ............................: 4.15 62,462,390
Oats ...................................: 2.46 828,010
Proso millet ...........................: 1.92 443,890
Rice ...................................: 8.57 9,901,510
Rye ....................................: 2.02 263,540
Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.26 8,071,090
Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.08 4,518,690
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.27 49,313,930
Winter ...............................: 3.40 33,958,140
Durum ................................: 2.49 1,614,670
Other spring .........................: 3.09 13,741,130
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 2.01 1,885,770
Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,436,420
Flaxseed ...............................: 1.16 75,210
Mustard seed ...........................: 0.70 67,720
Peanuts ................................: 4.19 2,671,670
Rapeseed ...............................: 2.25 9,180
Safflower ..............................: 1.16 59,230
Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.40 113,343,930
Sunflower ..............................: 2.00 1,026,720
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 2,707,180
Upland ...............................: 0.94 2,640,340
American Pima ........................: 1.18 66,840
Sugarbeets .............................: 70.05 31,956,490
Sugarcane ..............................: 81.42 30,632,000
Tobacco ................................: 2.58 196,160
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 214,190
Dry edible beans .......................: 2.32 1,084,540
Dry edible peas ........................: 2.15 820,370
Lentils ................................: 1.23 260,450
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: 2.15 47,190
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 20,900
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 302,390
Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 1,280
Potatoes ...............................: 51.45 19,992,090
Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 700
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 339 353
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,096 922
Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,548 2,733
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 965 904
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,910.0
Apricots ..............................tons: 32,400
Avocados ..............................tons:
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 371,000
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 203.0
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds:
Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,620,000
:
Dates .................................tons:
Grapes ................................tons: 6,285,000
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:
Nectarines (California) ...............tons:
Olives (California) ...................tons:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:
Peaches ...............................tons: 543,000
Pears .................................tons: 645,000
Plums (California) ....................tons:
Prunes (California) ...................tons:
Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds:
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons:
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 271,450
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 760,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ................................: 307,540 320,240
Lemons ....................................: 994,270 836,420
Oranges ...................................: 2,311,510 2,479,340
Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 875,430 820,100
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ........................: 4,495,100
Apricots ..................................: 29,390
Avocados ..................................:
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:
Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 336,570
Cherries, Tart ............................: 92,080
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................:
Cranberries ...............................: 345,640
:
Dates .....................................:
Grapes ....................................: 5,701,660
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:
Nectarines (California) ...................:
Olives (California) .......................:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Peaches ...................................: 492,600
Pears .....................................: 585,130
Plums (California) ........................:
Prunes (California) .......................:
Raspberries, all ..........................:
Strawberries ..............................:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............:
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:
Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 123,130
Pistachios (California) ...................:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 689,460
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
March Weather Summary
The Nation's winter wheat emerged from dormancy mostly in better shape than
last autumn, with decreasing drought coverage and a general lack of cold-
season extremes favoring the crop. By March 31, fifty-six percent of the
Nation's winter wheat was rated in good to excellent condition, up from
50 percent on November 26, 2023. Between late November and the end of March,
double-digit increases in good-to-excellent ratings were observed in several
winter wheat-production states, including Kansas (from 32 to 48 percent),
Oregon (from 37 to 71 percent), Michigan (from 46 to 56 percent), Nebraska
(from 49 to 65 percent), and Oklahoma (from 53 to 73 percent). According to
statistics derived from the Drought Monitor, the percentage of the Nation's
winter wheat production area in drought decreased from an autumn 2023 peak of
49 percent to a March minimum of 12 percent.
During the 5-week period from February 27 to April 2, overall drought
coverage in the Lower 48 States decreased slightly from 21.59 to
18.01 percent, according to the Drought Monitor. Periodic March storminess
across the South, Midwest, and West led to decreases in drought coverage,
while worsening conditions were noted in a few areas, including portions of
the southern High Plains. An area centered on northwestern Oklahoma received
minimal moisture during February and March, with short-term drought impacts
being exacerbated by periods of warm, windy weather.
In the upper Midwest, late-March storminess dented a "snow drought" that had
left soils relatively dry heading into spring. In a 4-day period, 40 to
50 percent of the season-to-date snowfall occurred in parts of Minnesota and
Wisconsin. More broadly, March storms helped to replenish soil moisture
across large sections of the Plains and Midwest. Still, by March 31, topsoil
moisture was rated at least 30 percent very short to short in 13 states
across the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest, led by New Mexico (81 percent very
short to short) and Iowa (59 percent). As a result, fieldwork advanced with
few delays, allowing 21 percent of the oats to be planted in Iowa by
March 31, along with 12 percent in Nebraska and 10 percent in South Dakota.
One of the wettest areas during March was the middle and northern Atlantic
States. For Atlantic City, New Jersey, it was the wettest March on record,
with precipitation totaling 9.85 inches. By March 31, topsoil moisture was
rated 100 percent surplus in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Meanwhile,
active March weather in the West padded high-elevation snowpack. According to
the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency
of the Sierra Nevada snowpack reached 29 inches by April 1, about 110 percent
of average. In fact, near- or above-average snowpack was reported by April 1
in nearly all drainage basins along and south of a line from Oregon to
western and southern Wyoming. In contrast, snow-water equivalency was mostly
75 percent of average or less in much of Montana, Washington, northern Idaho,
and northeastern Wyoming.
General warmth across the eastern half of the country contrasted with mostly
near- or below-normal temperatures from the Pacific Coast to the High Plains.
Continuing a recent theme, the warmest weather-relative to normal-stretched
from the Midwest into the Northeast, with monthly temperatures averaging more
than 5�F above normal in many locations. In contrast, monthly readings
averaged at least 3�F below normal in parts of northern Montana and western
North Dakota, propelled by cold outbreaks in early and late March. The
strongest surge of cool air into the Southeast peaked on March 19, with hard
freezes (28�F or below) reaching into parts of the Tennessee Valley,
including northern Alabama.
March Agricultural Summary
March was warmer than average for most of the eastern half of the Nation.
Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and New England recorded temperature 6�F
or more above normal. In contrast, most of the western half of the Nation was
cooler than normal. Parts of the Northern Plains, Northern Rockies, and
Southwest recorded temperatures 4�F or more below normal. During March, much
of the western half of the Nation received higher than normal amounts of
precipitation. Parts of the Great Basin, Northern Plains, Rockies, and
Southwest received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Higher
than normal amounts of precipitation were also recorded for much of the
Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northeast, and South. Much of New England, as well as
large parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and southern Florida, recorded at least
twice the normal amount of precipitation.
By March 31, six percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed,
1 percentage point behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the
5-year average. On March 31, fifty-six percent of the 2024 winter wheat crop
was reported in good to excellent condition, 29 percentage points above last
year.
Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The United States 2023-2024 grapefruit crop is forecast at
353,000 tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from
last season's revised utilization. The California forecast, at
4.10 million boxes (164,000 tons), is up 8 percent from previous forecast but
down 5 percent from the last seasons revised total.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 904,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but
down 6 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California
tangerine and mandarin forecast at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons) is
unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's
revised total.
Lemons: The 2023-2024 United States lemon crop is forecast at 922,000 tons,
up 10 percent from previous forecast but down 16 percent from last season's
revised utilization. The California forecast, at 22.0 million boxes
(880,000 tons), is up 10 percent from the previous forecast but
down 15 percent from the revised 2022-2023 season.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast
was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of
bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are
conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the
current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys
on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also
conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in
March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1
forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for
setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current
situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey
data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new
forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season
estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August.
The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the
marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and
processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and
home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example,
the "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is
3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more
than 3.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent.
Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the
differences between the April 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes for
oranges between the April 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past
20-years have averaged 154,000 tons, ranging from 0 ton to 502,000 tons. The
April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times, above
12 times, and equal 1 time. The difference does not imply that the April 1
forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : Difference between forecast
: : : and final estimate
: : :----------------------------------------
: :90 percent : Production : Years
Crop : Root mean :confidence :----------------------------------------
:square error: interval : : : : Below : Above
: : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number
:
Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 3.8 6.6 154 0 502 7 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Quantity is in thousands of units.
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to
nass@usda.gov
Nicholas Streff, Acting Chief, Crops Branch.......................................... (202) 720-2127
Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section............................................ (202) 720-2127
Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition...................................... (202) 720-7621
Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234
Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042
David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800
Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533
James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068
Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet..................................... (202) 720-9526
Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944
Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................... (202) 720-7369
Travis Thorson - Peanuts, Rice.................................................. (202) 720-2127
Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127
Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288
Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans,
Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235
Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia,
Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach............................................. (202) 720-3250
Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons,
Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412
Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285
Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas,
Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157
Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web
site: www.nass.usda.gov.
Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit
www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right
corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports
you would like to receive.
Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and
other agency's archived reports. The new website,
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing
reports will be sent from the new website,
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via
e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account
and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an
account or subscribe, they are located at:
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist
notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to
avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
nass@usda.gov.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race,
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion,
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded
by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs
and/or employment activities.)
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination,
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online
at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer,
or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may
also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form.
Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue,
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at
program.intake@usda.gov.
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